期刊论文

中文

南华大学学报(自然科学版)

1673-0062

2019

33

1

52-57

10.19431/j.cnki.1673-0062.2019.01.010

本校为第一机构

通过选取湖南省2001年至2017年间的粮食产量数据,采用灰色系统理论、背景值优化、新陈代谢原理、结合马尔可夫模型建立等维新陈代谢的改进无偏灰色马尔可夫模型对湖南省粮食产量进行预测。结果显示:等维新陈代谢的改进无偏灰色马尔可夫模型的预测精度远高于传统的灰色预测模型,该模型更适合中短期粮食产量预测。

Through selecting the grain yield data from 2001 to 2017 in Hunan Province,an improved unbiased grey Markov model of equal dimension metabolism was established adopting the grey system theory,background value optimization,metabolism principle combined with Markov model to predict the grain yield in Hunan Province.The results show that the prediction accuracy of the improved unbiased grey Markov model of equal dimension metabolism is much higher than that of the traditional grey model,and the model is more suitab...