期刊论文

Grey Prediction of Flood Disaster in Hunan Based on Markov Chain Correction

中文

南华大学学报(自然科学版)

1673-0062

2017

31

4

95-100

10.19431/j.cnki.1673-0062.2017.04.019

本校为第一机构

通过对1985～2015年的湖南省受灾率和成灾率的数据分析,研究未来15年湖南省洪涝灾害的灾年预测和发展趋势.利用统计数据建立灰色灾变模型GM(1,1),得到了洪涝灾害有阶段性波动且受灾率与成灾率有明显的同步性的结论.经由马尔科夫过程修正的灰色残差模型,具有更高的准确率,可为中长期预测提供参考.

Based on the data analysis of the disaster rate and hazard rate in Hunan Province in1985～ 2015,this paper researches the disaster prediction and the development trend of flood disaster in Hunan Province in the next 15 years.Using statistical data to establish the grey catastrophe model GM（ 1,1）,the flood disaster has periodic fluctuations and disaster rate and hazard rate have obvious synchronization conclusion.Through the grey residual model of Markov process correction,with higher acc...