期刊论文

Risk Evaluation of Greenhouse Type Selection Based on Evidence Theory

中文

南华大学学报(社会科学版)

1673-0755

2013

14

4

45-49

国家自然科学基金项目“基于信息融合的温室环境调控技术”资助（编号:31071327）； 湖南省2010年省级科技计划立项项目“温室生态经济系统基本功能综合评价”资助（编号:2010FJ3163）； 南华大学博士启动基金项目“温室生态经济系统能量流、物质流和价值流协同效应研究”资助（编号:2011XQD05）；

本校为第一机构

目前，我国农业设施中存在诸如塑料大棚与玻璃自控温室等温室类型，选择何种温室类型，是需要考虑的首要问题。文章从温室选型风险效应视角，通过构建温室选型风险效应层次结构模型，采用证据理论方法、程序评价玻璃自控温室和塑料大棚的风险效应。结果表明：风险厌恶者宁愿选择塑料温室，而风险偏好者宁愿选择玻璃自控温室。

There are some types of greenhouses in our country now, such as plastic greenhouse and glass self-controlled green- house. To select what type of greenhouse is a primary issue to the producer. This paper evaluates risk effect of glass self-controlled greenhouse and plastic greenhouses from the perspective of risk effect of greenhouse type selection by constructing hierarchical structure model. In this paper, the method and evaluating procedure of evidence theory is used. The results show that the risk averter prefers to plastic greenhouse, w...