This paper analyses in detail the data on the safety accidents occurring in a certain lead-mine in the past decade years, then draws a conclusion that in the mine, every year March may be accident fastigium, also the frequency of safety accidents greatly rises with the increase of ore production. Through analyzing by grey system theory, it is predicted that there may are 10 to 12 safety accidents to occur during 2003~2005 in the mine. It is put forward that the possible safety accidents can be prevented only if the safety educati...