期刊论文

Research on Applicability of Bayesian Method in Analysis of Accident Risk Factors of Floating Nuclear Power Plants

中文

工业安全与环保

1001-425X

2019

45

3

4-7,40

10.3969/j.issn.1001-425X.2019.03.002

国防科技工业核动力技术创新中心科研项目“海上核动力平台应急策略研究”(HDLCXZX-2018-HB-016) 南华大学研究生创新科研项目(2018KYZ026)。

本校为第一机构

为探讨贝叶斯方法在浮动式核电站事故风险分析中的适用性,通过相关调研、文献资料、数据统计等,总结浮动式核电站事故风险因素分析的特点,即有限的空间布置,搭载平台与环境的特殊性,多态、动态与不确定性。结合以上分析,提出静态、动态、结合FMEA及灰色状态下的4种贝叶斯方法。得出贝叶斯方法在浮动式核电站风险因素分析过程中更加直观且具有连续性,既适用于定性分析也适用于定量分析。

In order to explore the applicability of Bayesian method in accident risk analysis of FNPP,the characteristics of risk factors analysis of accidents in FNPP,such as limited space arrangement,particularity of carrying platform and environment,multi-state dynamics and uncertainty,are summarized through relevant investigations,literature and data statistics.Based on the applicability of Bayesian network and the analysis characteristics of risk factors of FNPP,four Bayesian methods are proposed,which are static,dynamic,FMEA and Grey state.The analysis shows that Bayesian method is more intuitive a...