期刊论文

中文

中华流行病学杂志

0254-6450

2023

44

6

917-923

10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20221010-00869

本校为第一机构

目的:分析1990-2019年中国甲状腺癌发病和死亡趋势，探讨趋势变化原因，并对未来发病和死亡情况进行预测。方法:收集2019全球疾病负担数据库中1990-2019年中国甲状腺癌发病和死亡数据。利用Joinpoint连接点回归模型描述变化趋势。基于2012-2019年发病和死亡数据，构建灰色模型GM（1，1）预测未来10年情况，根据后验误差法、残差检验法对模型进行检验。结果:全国、男性、女性粗发病率的平均年度变化百分比（AAPC）值分别为4.15%（95% CI：3.86%~4.44%， P

Objective:To analyze the morbidity and mortality trends of thyroid cancer in China from 1990 to 2019, explore the causes of the trends, and predict morbidity and mortality in the future.Methods:The morbidity and mortality data of thyroid cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 were collected from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease database. The Joinpoint regression model was used to describe the change trends. Based on the morbidity and mortality data from 2012 to 2019, a grey model GM (1,1) was constructed to predict the trends in the next ten years. The model was tested by the posterior error metho...