期刊论文

Rang, W.-Q.

中文

中华疾病控制杂志

1674-3679

2022

26

1

21-27

10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2022.01.004

National Natural Science Foundation of China (81673107).

本校为第一机构

目的建立并比较两种预测模型在中国肾癌死亡趋势中的应用,选取最佳模型对2020 - 2025年中国肾癌死亡率进行预测。方法收集全球健康数据交换(Global Health Data Exchange, GHDx)数据库1990-2019年中国人群全年龄组肾癌死亡率数据,使用R 4.0.2软件基于1990 - 2016年肾癌死亡率数据分别建立自回归移动平均模型(autoregressive integrated moving average model, ARIMA)和灰色模型(gray model, GM) (1,1),比较2017-2019年预测值与实际值以评价两种模型的拟合和预测性能,采用最佳模型预测2020-2025年中国肾癌死亡情况。结果1990-2019年中国肾癌粗死亡率(crude mortality rate, CMR)呈上升趋势;在备选...

Objective To build and compare two forecasting models for kidney cancer mortality in China, and choose the best model to predict the mortality rate of kidney cancer in China from 2020 to 2025. Methods We collected the mortality data of kidney cancer in China among all ages in the global health data exchange (GHDx) database from 1990 to 2019. R 4.0.2 software were used to establish autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) model and gray model (GM) (1,1) model. Based on kidney cancer mortality data from 1990 to 2016, we compared the...