期刊论文

Epidemiological characteristics and trend prediction of pertussis in Hunan Province from 2009 to 2018

中文

中华疾病控制杂志

1674-3679

2020

24

11

1263-1268,1281

10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.11.005

湖南自然科学基金科卫联合项目（2019JJ80070）~~；

本校为第一机构

目的分析湖南省2009 - 2018年百日咳发病的流行病学特征,建立自回归移动平均(autoregressive integrated moving average,ARIMA)模型,为百日咳疫情防控提供科学依据。方法收集传染病监测系统中2009 - 2019年的百日咳监测数据资料,分析2009 - 2018年百日咳流行病学特征,基于2009年1月- 2018年12月的百日咳月发病率资料建立预测模型,并对2020年百日咳发病趋势进行预测。结果2009 - 2018年湖南省共报告百日咳病例2 530例,年均报告发病率为0.371/10万; 5 - 9月为百日咳报告的高发月份, 10月-次年4月为低发月份;高发地区为娄底市、益阳市、长沙市、郴州市;男性发病率高于女性,报告病例主要为散居儿童...

Objective Analyzing the epidemiological characteristics of pertussis in Hunan Province from 2009 to 2018,and establishing an autoregressive moving average model,to provide scientific basis for the prevention and control of pertussis. Methods The surveillance data of pertussis in Hunan Province during 2009-2019 were collected from the infectious disease reporting information management system, and the epidemiological characteristics of pertussis were analyzed. A prediction model was established based on the monthly incidence date fron January 20...